南极海冰2016年达到最低点，可能是人类活动所致
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南极海冰面积（sea ice extent, sie）自1979年以来呈现上升趋势，但在2016年南半球春季期间急剧减少，至2016年12月达到历史最低。
2019年1月2日, 来自澳大利亚气象局的guomin wang团队在《自然-通讯》期刊发表的一项研究“compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low antarctic sea-ice in 2016”中指出，大气与海洋现象的组合在此次海冰面积减少中发挥了主要作用。
异常的大气环流最初是由印度洋和西太平洋上的热带强对流驱动的，这导致了南极洲周围形成三波环流模式，使得印度洋、罗斯海区和别林斯高晋海区的海冰面积减少。随后，极地平流层涡流显著减弱，导致极地表面西风带大幅减弱，这进一步使得印度洋和太平洋海区海冰面积减少。
这些过程似乎反映出异常的大气-海洋内部变化性。然而，热带印度洋的变暖趋势（可能部分是由人类活动所致）可能在一定程度上加剧了2016年海冰面积减少的严峻程度。
论文相关信息
摘要：after exhibiting an upward trend since 1979, antarctic sea ice extent (sie) declined dramatically during austral spring 2016, reaching a record low by december 2016. here we show that a combination of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena played primary roles for this decline. the anomalous atmospheric circulation was initially driven by record strength tropical convection over the indian and western pacific oceans, which resulted in a wave-3 circulation pattern around antarctica that acted to reduce sie in the indian ocean, ross and bellingshausen sea sectors. subsequently, the polar stratospheric vortex weakened significantly, resulting in record weakening of the circumpolar surface westerlies that acted to decrease sie in the indian ocean and pacific ocean sectors. these processes appear to reflect unusual internal atmosphere-ocean variability. however, the warming trend of the tropical indian ocean, which may partly stem from anthropogenic forcing, may have contributed to the severity of the 2016 sie decline.
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